Economic Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and its Sustainable Development Potential
Abdulhuseyn Zamanov1 , Abulfaz Salmanov1* , Eltun Ibrahimov2 ,
Jeyhun Mahmudov3 , and Agariza Rustemov2
Abstract. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the current economic condition of the agricultural sector in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, evaluate the dynamics of agricultural production, and determine the sustainable development potential of the sector. Within the framework of the study, statistical data covering the period 2010–2024 were used to investigate the development trends of crop production and livestock sectors, productivity indicators, and the relationship between irrigation water supply and agricultural output. In the empirical analysis stage, the ARDL econometric model was applied to evaluate the short-run and long-run relationships between agricultural production, irrigation water supply, and crop production. The findings indicate that water supply is one of the main determinants of agricultural production in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, and reductions in water resources directly affect agricultural productivity. In particular, drought and water scarcity have caused a decline in grain and grape production. At the same time, intensive development trends were observed in potato farming, horticulture, and fruit production. The results demonstrate that the development of sustainable agriculture, ensuring food security, increasing agricultural productivity, and efficient management of water resources are essential for strengthening regional economic sustainability.
Keywords: agricultural sector, sustainable agriculture, food security, agricultural productivity, irrigation system, regional economic development, ARDL model, climate change, water supply, economic growth