Coal Phase-Out in the European Union and China: A Comparative Analysis of Institutional Lock-In Mechanisms
Orkhan Mammadov
Abstract. This article comparatively analyses the institutional lock-in mechanisms that hinder the coal phase-out process in the European Union and China. The main objective of the study is to identify the similarities and differences between the institutional factors that sustain coal dependence under different political and governance systems. The research is based on a qualitative comparative case analysis. The empirical basis of the study consists of an analysis of the academic literature on institutional lock-in and energy transitions, studies on the energy policies of the European Union and China, as well as statistical data and reports published by Eurostat, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The analysis shows that state subsidies, employment interests, regional economic dependencies, and existing energy infrastructure slow down the coal phase-out process in both cases. However, the ways in which these mechanisms operate differ. In the European Union, although multi-level governance, veto actors, and consensus-oriented decision-making processes slow down the transition, the European Union Emissions Trading System, the European Green Deal, and the Just Transition Mechanism gradually weaken institutional barriers. In China, by contrast, the economic interests of state-owned enterprises, the economic growth incentives of provincial governments, and regionally decentralised authoritarianism reinforce coal dependence. Consequently, the pace of the coal phase-out depends not only on technological capacities but also on how political institutions distribute interests and shape decision-making processes.
Keywords: coal phase-out, institutional lock-in, path dependence, European Union, China, energy transition, climate policy, comparative analysis