Armenia’s Militarization: A Threat to Azerbaijan’s National Security

Armenia’s post-2020 rearmament trajectory represents a fundamental shift in its defense doctrine and regional strategic orientation. Triggered by its defeat in the Second Garabagh War, Armenia has intensified military procurement through non-traditional partners—most notably France and India—marking a deliberate move away from Russia-centered dependency. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the implications of Armenia’s changing military strategy for Azerbaijan’s security and the South Caucasus security architecture.

Drawing on strategic analysis and defense data, the paper argues that Armenia’s acquisition of long-range artillery systems (e.g., CAESAR howitzers, Pinaka MBRLs), advanced air defense platforms (e.g., Akash SAMs, Mistral MANPADS), and integrated radar systems significantly expands its capacity for preemptive and precision strikes. The forward deployment of these systems near volatile frontiers—including Lachin, Kalbajar, and Zangilan—directly threatens Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, airspace superiority, and critical infrastructure.

The analysis reveals that these procurements are not solely defensive but serve as instruments of coercive deterrence and strategic signaling. Moreover, the involvement of extra-regional actors in Armenia’s military buildup introduces new power asymmetries and undermines existing mediation frameworks. The study concludes that Armenia’s militarization undermines regional stability, exacerbates the arms race dynamic, and generates enduring strategic risks for Azerbaijan. Immediate policy recalibration is needed to deter escalation and preserve the fragile post-conflict balance in the South Caucasus.

Keywords: South Caucasus, Armenia’s Militarization, Azerbaijan’s National Security, Strategic Deterrence, Military Procurement, regional stability

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